OPEC has lowered its global oil demand growth estimate for 2024 to 1.6 million bpd from the already reduced estimate of 1.8 million bpd. The reduction shows even more conservative expectations about global consumption, following some not-so-strong data for the third quarter of 2024.

The latest monthly report by OPEC estimated the organization to have a total global oil demand at 105.5 million bpd in the fourth quarter of 2024 and at an annual average of 103.8 million bpd. This marks the fifth downward revision the organization has had since August and is the latest at 210,000 bpd. Contrary to this, in July 2024, it had made an early prediction that growth would come out to be 2.25 million bpd.

OPEC trimmed the 2024 estimate but further diminished the growth of global demand that it sees for 2025 down to 1.4 million bpd, which it added said that total world oil demand will rise to 105.3 million bpd. The organization said this was due to the major demand for air travel as well as road mobility like trucking and on-road diesel, along with strong industrial construction and agricultural activity in the non-OECD.

OPEC revised its demand upwards amid the pressures in the oil market, where prices have been fluctuating and geopolitical uncertainty has been growing. In the earlier stages of December, OPEC+ delayed its planned increase in output until April 2025.

China, the traditional global leader in oil consumption, had also contributed to the adjustments. OPEC currently expects 430,000 bpd growth in the country’s oil demand during 2024, 760,000 bpd lower than their July estimate. According to Bloomberg, transport fuel demand from China has decreased, while crude imports in the nation are expected to have reached its peak next year.

The revision is based on broader global trends: in other Asian countries, the Middle East, and Africa, reductions in demand growth have also been observed. These factors make for a more cautious outlook for global oil consumption in the years ahead.